The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their seasonal outlooks today. Illinois has a higher risk of being both warmer and drier than average through mid-summer. There is an increased risk of being warmer than average in late summer and in fall.
CPC also stated in a January 14 release that the “strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.”
In addition, there is a chance that La Niña conditions (the opposite of El Niño) could develop in the summer or fall time frame. Unfortunately, the appearance of La Niña in summer or fall in Illinois typically means hot, dry weather. I will discuss this more in a separate post.
This is the first time I can remember CPC forecasting an increased risk of warmer and drier conditions so far out for Illinois. If the forecast comes to pass, this could be a challenging summer.
February: Illinois has an increased risk of being both warmer and drier than average.
February – April: Illinois has an increased risk of being both warmer and drier than average.
May – July: Illinois has an increased risk of being both warmer and drier than average.
August – October: Illinois has an increased risk of being warmer than average. No forecast on precipitation.
Any ideas on what the last day of frost average is in El Niño years?
There is not a clear connection between frost dates during El Nino or La Nina years. All it takes is the right weather on one night and you get the frost.