New NOAA Climate and Flood Outlooks

Happy Spring Equinox!

Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

There were a lot of new outlooks released today from NOAA. First are the new temperature and precipitation outlooks for April and this spring. It looks like the below-average temperatures are likely to continue in April. We have had below-average temperatures in Illinois for every month since November.

The April-June outlook has northern Illinois with an increased chance of below-average temperatures. Areas labeled E.C. mean that there are equal chances of above-, below-, or near-average temperatures or precipitation (depending on the map type).

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NWS Climate Prediction Center outlooks. Click to enlarge.

Spring Flooding Risk

The second major announcement is the spring flood outlook.

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In the article, they say,

An unusually cold and wet winter across the Upper Mississippi Basin, Great Lakes region, Ohio River Valley, northern Middle Atlantic, New York and New England has produced an above normal amount of water in the current snowpack and a deep layer of frozen ground much further south than typical. With significant frozen ground in these areas, the flood risk is highly dependent on the amount of future rainfall and the rate of snowmelt this spring. Recent snowmelt has increased the near surface soil moisture and elevated the potential for rapid runoff from rain events. In addition, significant river ice increases the risk of flooding related to ice jams and ice jam breakups.

Moderate flooding is expected in southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan and portions of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, as a result of water in the current snowpack and the deep layer of frozen ground coupled with expected seasonal temperatures and rainfall. Specific rivers at risk include the Mississippi River between Davenport, Iowa and Burlington, Iowa, the Illinois River between Beardstown, Illinois and Henry, Illinois and many smaller rivers in the area. In addition, a potential for exceeding minor river flood levels exists across the upper Midwest and east into New England.

New NWS Outlooks for June and June-August

Today, the NWS Climate Prediction Center released their temperature and precipitation outlooks for June and June-August and beyond. You can see their full suite of outlooks here.

There isn’t much to report for Illinois (below). We are in the EC zone which means we have equal chances of above, below, and near-average temperatures and precipitation for the next three months. The only exception is that far southern Illinois has a slightly higher chance of above-average temperatures for June-August.

NWS Climate Prediction Center outlooks released May 16, 2013.
NWS Climate Prediction Center outlooks released May 16, 2013. Click to enlarge.

New Climate Prediction Center Outlooks

On February 20, the NWS Climate Prediction Center released their new outlooks for March and beyond. Below are the maps for March, spring (March to May), and summer (June to August).
The overall theme for Illinois is an increased chance of above-average temperatures through August. We have an increased chance of above-average precipitation in the March-May period, followed by equal chances in the June-August period. If it pans out, above-average precipitation for this spring should help with low water levels on both the Great Lakes and Mississippi River as well as alleviate drought concerns in northern Illinois.
If you are wondering when was the last time we had a spring that was both warmer and wetter than average, you do not have to look very far. The springs of 2004, 2006, 2009, 2010, and 2011 all qualified as having both above average on precipitation and temperature. In fact, our spring temperatures in Illinois have been at or above average in all but 2 years since 1998 (last figure).

The Climate Prediction Center outlook for March and March-May. NOAA.
The Climate Prediction Center outlook for March and March-May. NOAA.

Climate Prediction Center outlook for summer (June-August).
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for summer (June-August).

Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook for summer (June-August).
Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook for summer (June-August).

Spring Temperatures in Illinois since 1895. Source: http://www.southernclimate.org/products/trends.php
Spring Temperatures in Illinois since 1895. The green dots are the spring temperatures each year. The shaded curve represents a 5-year running average with extended periods of cool temperatures shaded in blue and extended periods of warm temperatures shaded in red. Source: http://www.southernclimate.org/products/trends.php

Latest Monthly and Seasonal Outlook Released

Yesterday NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their outlooks for February and beyond (see maps below). For February they call for an increased chance of below-average temperatures for the upper Midwest, including the northern two-thirds of Illinois. Precipitation in Illinois is expected to have equal chances (E.C.) of being above, below, or near average.
For February through April, temperatures have an equal chance of being above, below, or near average. It’s what I call a neutral forecast. On the other hand, there is an increased chance of above-average precipitation across the Great Lakes region, including the northern three-fourths of Illinois. That would be great news for the further recovery of drought conditions in Illinois, if it pans out.
The outlook for May through July indicates that a large part of the US is expected to have an increased chance of above-average temperatures (last map). The precipitation outlook for this period is neutral.
The outlook for August through October (not shown) is not very interesting for Illinois with equal chances of above, below, and near average temperature and precipitation. In other words, it is a very neutral outlook.
As of January 18, this month has been warm and wet. Temperatures have been almost 5 degrees above the long-term average. Precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, has ranged from less than an inch in northwest Illinois to over 5 inches in far southern Illinois. Current measurements of soil temperatures in Illinois show that the soils under grass at 4 inches remain unfrozen. So much of that rain and melted snow should have soaked in.

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One and three month outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

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Temperature outlook for May – July from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.