Seasonal Outlooks – Page 7 – Illinois State Climatologist

August 21, 2014

Weather Outlook for Fall and Winter in Illinois

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their monthly outlook for September and 3-month outlooks for September and beyond. At this time, they are not expecting a repeat of last winter for Illinois.

According to them, the chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter. If it does show up, it is expected to a moderate to weak event. As a result, the impacts on the US and the Midwest will likely be modest at best.

September and FALL

For both September and this fall, there is an equal chance (EC) of above, below, near-average temperature and precipitation (4-panel figure below) for Illinois. The north-central US is not expected to have below-average temperatures, like it has experienced this summer. This may give crops in those areas a better chance of reaching maturity this fall.

It does look like temperatures are expected to stay above-average on the West and East Coast, as well as Alaska. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected to prevail in the southwest US, and expand into the Plains and parts of Iowa and Missouri later in the fall.

WINTER (December-February)

For Illinois, the current forecast is for equal chances of above, below, and near-average temperatures. Or to put it another way, they see no sign of a repeat of last winter. And they are expecting below-average precipitation in Illinois and across the Great Lakes region. It is still early in the year to lock in on this forecast so I would not cancel orders for snow blowers or salt deliveries just yet.

July 17, 2014

More Cool Weather Ahead?

The NWS Climate Prediction Center released their latest outlook for August and beyond. In the figure below, the top row are the temperature and precipitation outlooks for August. The second row is for August – October. Click to enlarge.

For August, northern Illinois has an increased chance of below-average temperatures, along with Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the Dakotas. Precipitation in August has equal chances (EC) of being above, below, or near-average.

For August-October, almost all of Illinois has an increased chance of below-average temperatures. Precipitation during this period has equal chances of being above, below, or near-average.

So far, July is shaping up to be both cooler and wetter than average. Through July 16, the statewide average temperature was 70.9 degrees, 5 degrees below average. Statewide precipitation was 2.9 inches, 54 percent above average.

June 19, 2014

New Climate Outlook for July and Summer – OK for Illinois

Today (June 19) the NOAA Climate Prediction Center has released their latest outlook for July and the rest of the year. One of the factors to come into play this fall and winter is the developing El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean. Unshaded areas show an equal chance (EC) of above, below, or near-average conditions. Click on any map to enlarge.

JULY

For July, we have EC for both temperature and precipitation in Illinois, except for a slight risk of below-average precipitation in southern Illinois. We are sandwiched between cooler than average conditions in the north and warmer that average conditions in the south.

JULY-SEPTEMBER

For July through September we have EC for both temperature and precipitation in Illinois. From the standpoint of the Corn Belt, the increased chance of cooler than average temperatures in WI, MN, and the Dakotas through September may spell trouble for getting the corn crop to mature in time this fall. Wetter than average conditions are expected in the central West, which could bring some relief to drought conditions in that region.

DECEMBER-FEBRUARY

For December through February, the core winter months, Illinois and much of the northern half of the US has an increased chance of above-average temperatures. This forecast reflects the expectation that El Niño will arrive. El Niño tends to bring milder temperatures in winter for Illinois and wetter conditions in the Southwest and Southeast.

April 17, 2014

New Forecast for the 2014 Growing Season

Today the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their forecast for May and beyond. There is nothing much to report for Illinois. We are in the area labeled EC for both temperature and precipitation for May and May-July. EC stands for equal chances of above-, below-, and near-average conditions. I consider that a neutral forecast without any solid evidence for unusual conditions to crop up (heat, drought, etc.).

While not shown here, the August-October maps are just as exciting for Illinois – EC for both temperature and precipitation. At least they have taken out the “increased chances of below-normal temperatures” that have been prevalent in recent months. While there has been some press about the potential arrival of El Niño this summer, the current thinking at CPC is that the effects will be minimal until later in the year.

Meanwhile, the latest 6-10 and 8-14 days forecasts (below) from the Climate Prediction Center show increased odds for both warmer and wetter than average conditions in Illinois. The warmer temperatures are welcome for warming up the soils (see Illinois soil temperatures). However, the increased chances for rain could be a problem for field work.

6-10 Day Forecast (click to enlarge)

8-14 Day Forecast (click to enlarge)