Tag: fall

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Weather Outlook for Fall and Winter in Illinois

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their monthly outlook for September and 3-month outlooks for September and beyond. At this time, they are not expecting a repeat of last winter for Illinois.

According to them, the chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter. If it does show up, it is expected to a moderate to weak event. As a result, the impacts on the US and the Midwest will likely be modest at best.

September and FALL

For both September and this fall, there is an equal chance (EC) of above, below, near-average temperature and precipitation (4-panel figure below) for Illinois. The north-central US is not expected to have below-average temperatures, like it has experienced this summer. This may give crops in those areas a better chance of reaching maturity this fall.

It does look like temperatures are expected to stay above-average on the West and East Coast, as well as Alaska. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected to prevail in the southwest US, and expand into the Plains and parts of Iowa and Missouri later in the fall.

 

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WINTER (December-February)

For Illinois, the current forecast is for equal chances of above, below, and near-average temperatures. Or to put it another way, they see no sign of a repeat of last winter. And they are expecting below-average precipitation in Illinois and across the Great Lakes region. It is still early in the year to lock in on this forecast so I would not cancel orders for snow blowers or salt deliveries just yet.

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Frost on the Pumpkin in Illinois

Here are the median dates of the first time we hit 32 degrees in the fall. Since we don’t have reports of when frost occurs, we use 32 degrees as a proxy. It is no surprise that the frost date occurs earlier in northern Illinois than southern Illinois.
If you look closely, you may see differences of several days between neighboring sites. Nighttime temperatures, especially on calm, clear nights in the fall, can be very sensitive to the local conditions. Sites in town tend to be a little warmer than those in the countryside, and result in delaying the arrival of colder temperatures.
Chilly temperatures have already visited the northern part of the state this weekend. Mt. Carroll reported a low of 29 on September 23 and Elizabeth reported a low of 28 on September 24.
You can read more about frost and see many more maps on the state climatologist’s frost webpage.

Median date of first fall frost. Click to enlarge.

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Soil Temperatures in Fall in Illinois

The Illinois Agronomy Handbook recommends that fall N applications should be done when the daily maximum bare soil temperature at 4 inches is below 50 degrees. Fall application is not recommended south of Illinois Highway 16.
The Illinois State Water Survey’s Water and Atmospheric Resource Monitoring (WARM) program has a network of 19 sites around Illinois with daily soil temperature readings at 4 and 8 inches. You can see the reports from “yesterday” on their soil temperature page. Be sure to look at the daily maximum 4-inch bare soil temperature.
As of this writing (November 4), the daily maximum 4-inch bare soil temperature is below 50 degrees in the northwest part of the state. However, it is still in the low to mid 50s across northeastern and much of central Illinois.
Of course, the soil temperature in a particular field can vary due to the temperature, soil moisture, vegetation and tillage, and even soil color.
The figure below shows the average date when the 4-inch soil temperature reached 50 degrees in the fall. In general the average date was in mid-November. However, it can vary from year to year depending on weather and soil conditions.

Average date when soil temperatures at 4 inches reach 50 degrees.Click to enlarge.

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Fall Color in Illinois

I love all four seasons in Illinois but I especially like fall. In fact, you could say I’m a falloholic. What’s not to like – the air is cool and crisp and the cloud formations are spectacular. One of the best things about fall is the changing color in the trees, shrubs, and grass.

Henry Garnet’s Sweetspire in the author’s front yard.

A great website for all things related to fall color is the University of Illinois Extension site called “The Miracle of Fall“. Check it out for fall color, foliage updates, photos, festivals, etc. You can also find out about fall activities in Illinois at the Office of Tourism site “EnjoyIllinois.com“. A few other sites to explore are:

One of things I get asked every year at this time is, “what is the effect of weather on this year’s fall color?” It’s hard to answer because there is no formula for this. In general, you don’t want drought conditions because the leaves just turn brown and fall off. Instead, you want nights to be cool but not freezing to trigger the change in leaves. Also, you want mild day time temperatures (not too hot) and sunny weather to really make the colors pop.
I hope you take time to enjoy fall in Illinois. I know I will.