Wet Weather Ahead for Illinois

Here is the Qualitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for the next 7 days, according to the National Weather Service. This shows the potential amounts of rainfall, your mileage may vary. The area in shades of violet and purple are 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Shades of blue are 1 to 1.5 inches. Most of this is expected to fall in the next 3 days.

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Here is how much rain has fallen so far in May across the Midwest.

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April Temperatures in Illinois Warm Over the Last Century

According to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), the average April temperature in Illinois has warmed by 2 degrees over the last century. In addition, the most recent decade of 2006-2015 was the warmest set of Aprils on record. Statewide records go back to 1895.

Here are the statewide average temperatures for April in Illinois plotted by year. The purple line and black dots show the year-to-year variability in April temperatures in Illinois. The blue line shows the upward trend. You can find the original data and graph here.

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Above-Average Temperatures for April in Illinois

While there were a few cold stretches in April, the statewide average temperature for the month was 54.1 degrees, 1.7 degrees above average.

Precipitation in Illinois for April was more complicated. April precipitation was in the range of two to four inches in northern and central Illinois, and 4 to 7 inches in southern Illinois. As a result, the northern two-thirds of the state was slightly below average while the southern third was up to 2 inches above average. Fort Massac State Park reported the highest monthly precipitation total of 7.80 inches.

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April Precipitation. Click to enlarge.
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April Precipitation Departure. Click to enlarge.

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Volcanoes and Climate in Illinois

When I give talks on climate and climate change, I often get questions about volcanoes and their impact on our climate. The Washington Post had a recent article on the subject, mentioning the famous eruption of Tambora in 1815, which in 1816 led to the year without a summer in the eastern US. It probably had impacts on Illinois but we had no widespread observations in place at the time.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/04/24/the-epic-volcano-eruption-that-led-to-the-year-without-a-summer/

The one I remember the best was Mount Pinatubo. The following summer after that eruption was exceptionally cool across the US and around the world.

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Summer 1992 temperature departures from average for the lower 48 states. Shades of green indicate level of coolness. Click to enlarge.

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