Here are the 7-day totals for the central US, capturing the rainfall over the weekend. As forecasted, the heaviest rains were in Missouri and along the IL/MO border. Shades of green represent 0.5 to 2.0 inches.Most of IA, MI, IN, and OH received moderate amounts of rain from this system. However, large parts of Illinois received less than 0.5 inches (shaded in blue).
Notwithstanding this week, the outlook for this spring is warm. The Climate Prediction Center released their outlook on Thursday for April and beyond. Right now both El Niño and La Niña are out of the picture. However, there is much uncertainty for future conditions in the Pacific. Some models suggest that El Niño may return by late summer. As we move forward, we should get a clearer idea about El Niño.
For April, Illinois and much of the Midwest have an increased chance of above normal temperatures. Illinois has equal chances “EC” of above, below, or near-normal precipitation. I call EC a neutral forecast.
Some places in Illinois have been snowier in March than April. About the only noteworthy snowfall of February occurred in a band from Peoria to Hoopeston. So far in March, snow has pushed farther south, all the way to the Ohio River. At the same time, areas in northern Illinois have received substantially more snow in March than February. For example, Chicago O’Hare reported only a trace of snow in February and 7.8 inches of snow in March through this morning.
The latest US Drought Monitor map shows moderate drought in western and southwestern Illinois, based primarily on below-normal precipitation over the past three months. Are we in moderate drought? I think it’s premature to declare drought in Illinois.
While it has been dry this winter, the demand on water supplies and soil moisture are very low in winter. In an average winter, we have more than enough water to satisfy demand – in many cases too much water. As a result of low water demand, the impacts of below-normal precipitation on water supplies, navigation, and agriculture are harder to find in winter.
Continue reading “Is the Drought Monitor Crying Wolf in Illinois?”
