Tag: warm

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Updated Forecast for December and Winter

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has come out with a new forecast for December and for December-February (winter). This is part of their routine update cycle.

December

The outlook for December in Illinois calls for an increased chance of above normal temperatures.  An increased chance of above normal temperatures translates into just a few degrees above normal. Temperatures in Illinois have run an average of 2.9 degrees above normal for every month since March of this year. Therefore, continuing with a forecast for above-normal temperatures is not surprising.
The outlook calls for equal chances of above, below, or near-normal precipitation (or equal chances as they call it) in December in Illinois.

December-February (winter)

The outlook for December-February remains the same as last month. There is an increased chance of above-normal precipitation for all of Illinois. And, there is an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for the southern two-thirds of the state. See the figure below for more details.

CPC forecast
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecast for December and December-February (click to enlarge).

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First Half of November – Warm and Dry

First Half of November

The first half of November in Illinois has been warm and dry, according to preliminary data from November 1-15, 2010. The statewide average temperature was 47.3 degrees, 2.9 degrees above normal. The statewide average precipitation was only 0.21 inches, only 13 percent of normal for the first half of November.

Past November’s in Illinois

  • The driest November on record was 1904 with 0.28 inches.
  • November 2007 was the 25th driest with 1.75 inches.
  • November 2008 was the 20th driest with 1.48 inches.
  • November 2009 was near-normal with 2.47 inches.
  • Normal state-wide precipitation for November is 3.34 inches.

The term “normal” refers to the 1971-2000 average.

Precipitation percent of normal for first half of November 2010
Precipitation (Percent of Normal) for the First Half of November 2010.

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October Was Warm and Dry in Illinois

Precipitation

For Illinois, the statewide average rainfall for October was 1.4 inches, 1.5 inches below normal or 48 percent of normal. This ranks as the 20th driest October on record. The largest monthly rainfall total was reported at Belvidere with 3.94 inches. See map below for rainfall departures across the state.
While northern Illinois was close to normal on rainfall in October, parts of southern and eastern Illinois remained dry. The U.S. Drought Monitor lists those areas as “abnormally dry” and southeastern Illinois as”moderate drought”. At this time of year, the main impacts on agriculture would be on pasture conditions and winter wheat.

Soil Moisture

With the vegetation preparing for a long winter’s nap and lower temperatures, the demands on soil moisture are close to zero. So soil moisture should start to recover in the next few months even if precipitation remains below normal. The Illinois State Water Survey posts their latest soil moisture survey a few days after the end of the month here.

Temperature

The statewide average temperature for October was 56.2 degrees, 1.6 degrees above normal. The highest temperature for the month was reported at Fairfield with 93 degrees on October 10. The lowest temperature for the month was reported at Minonk with 22 degrees on October 29 and Sidell with 22 degrees on October 30.

Frost

During October, nearly all of Illinois has experienced temperatures down to 32 degrees and many areas have reached 28 degrees or less. See map below.

Figures

 

October rainfall Illinois
October rainfall departures from normal.

freeze Illinois
Occurrence of Frost (32F) and Freeze (28F) in Illinois at end of October 2010.

 
 
All data are preliminary.

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October Is Warm and Dry

So far, October in Illinois has been both warmer and drier than normal. As of October 19, the statewide average temperature was 59.8 degrees, 1 degree warmer than normal. The statewide average rainfall was only 0.22 inches, 12 percent of normal. See table below.
If this were July, the dryness would be a major source of concern. However, the impacts are much less in fall. In fact, the warm, dry weather aided in the maturing and harvesting of corn and soybeans. At the moment, the impacts are mostly focused on:

  • winter wheat – farmers are waiting on rains for germination;
  • landscaping – trees and shrubs may need more water before winter arrives;
  • fall color – I’ve noticed that the fall colors on trees and shrubs this year are muted with lots of shades of brown and yellow.

The NWS forecast shows a weather system moving through Illinois over the weekend. The potential rainfall amounts from this system range from 0.25 inches along the Wabash River in south-eastern Illinois to 1.25 inches in north-central Illinois. Another system is expected to move into the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. So the current dry weather may be short-lived.

                                Illinois
                        10/01/2010 to 10/19/2010
Climate          <------Temperature----->   <---------Precipitation--------->
Division         Actual   Normal      Dev   Actual   Normal     Dev   Percent
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northwest          55.2     53.4      1.9     0.09     1.82    -1.73        5
Northeast          55.8     53.7      2.0     0.27     1.82    -1.56       15
West               57.6     56.3      1.4     0.10     1.90    -1.80        5
Central            56.7     55.7      1.0     0.22     1.86    -1.64       12
East               56.0     55.4      0.6     0.38     1.86    -1.48       20
West-southwest     58.0     57.5      0.5     0.13     1.72    -1.60        7
East-southeast     58.4     57.8      0.6     0.28     1.92    -1.65       14
Southwest          58.9     58.9      0.0     0.23     1.85    -1.63       12
Southeast          59.8     59.2      0.6     0.35     1.84    -1.49       19
State              57.3     56.3      1.0     0.22     1.84    -1.62       12
Dev means Deviation From Normal, Percent means Percent of Normal