The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has updated their forecast for August. It’s not good news for Illinois with an increased risk of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.
Drought Intensifies in Illinois
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor has expanded D3 “extreme” drought across Illinois. It went from 8 percent of the state last week to 71 percent this week. This major shift was based on a number of short-term drought indicators based on rainfall, streamflow, and temperature, as well as from widespread reports of significant crop and pasture losses.
According to the USDA …
The streamlined process provides for nearly an automatic designation for any county in which drought conditions, as reported in the U.S. Drought Monitor … when any portion of a county meets the D2 (Severe Drought) drought intensity value for eight consecutive weeks. A county that has a portion of its area in a drought intensity value of D3 (Extreme Drought) or higher at any time during the growing season also would be designated as a disaster area.
Earlier this week, the USDA NASS reported that 66 percent of the corn crop, 49 percent of the soybean crop, and 91 percent of pasture was rated poor to very poor. Topsoil was rated at 91 percent poor to very poor and subsoil was rated 97 percent poor to very poor. More details can be found in the weekly Illinois Weather and Crops report.
Near Record Heat and Dryness in July
Based on data through yesterday, this July is shaping up to be one of the warmest and driest on record. Based on the forecast, this July is likely to remain as one of the warmest on record. My hope is that we get so much rain in the next week that we are not even close to the driest July on record.
Statewide Average Temperature Rankings for July in Illinois
- 1936: 83.1 ºF
- 2012: 81.8 ºF (as of July 30)
- 1901: 81.7 ºF
- 1934: 81.3 ºF
- 1916: 80.4 ºF
Statewide Average Rainfall Rankings for July in Illinois
- 1930: 1.02 inches
- 1916: 1.23 inches
- 1936: 1.24 inches
- 2012: 1.44 inches (as of July 30)
- 1914: 1.51 inches
Higher Risk of Hot, Dry Conditions for August and Fall
The Climate Prediction Center delivered more bad news for Illinois today. Their outlook for August includes an increased chance of above-normal temperatures across Illinois and much of the U.S. It includes an increased chance of below-normal precipitation for all of Illinois and much of the Midwest.
Their outlook for the 3-month period for August-October includes an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for Illinois and much of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. and below-normal precipitation for Illinois and much of the Midwest.
