Fall Begins with a Warm and Very Dry September

The preliminary statewide average September temperature was 68.8 degrees, 2.0 degrees above the 1991–2020 average and tied for the 27th warmest on record going back to 1895. The preliminary statewide total September precipitation was 2.60 inches, 0.75 inches below the 1991–2020 average and the 41st driest on record.

Data are provisional and may change slightly over time.

Fall Start and Summer Finish

September is a transition month as we move from summer into fall. In very September form, the month began with a brief taste of fall-like weather. Temperatures in Monmouth were 5 to 12 degrees below normal in the first 10 days of the month (Figure 1). Summer heat returned in the latter two-thirds of September, with several days that were 5 to 15 degrees warmer than normal statewide.

Figure 1. Daily September average temperatures and temperature departures in Monmouth.

September average temperatures ranged from the high 60s in northern Illinois to the mid-70s in southern Illinois, between 2 and 5 degrees above normal (Figure 2). High temperatures regularly reached the 90s in mid- and late September, including 99 degrees in Mt Vernon and Charleston. Meanwhile, cooler air in the first half of the month brought nighttime low temperatures in the 30s across much of the state, including 37 in Lincoln and 38 in McHenry. The coolest point in the state was Stockton with an average temperature of 64.3 degrees and the warmest part of the state was Smithland Lock & Dam in Massac County with an average temperature of 72.6 degrees.

Figure 2. Maps of (left) September average temperature and (right) September average temperature departures from normal.

The summer-like heat last month broke 51 daily high maximum temperature records and 3 daily high minimum temperature records across the state. The brief cold spell in early September broke 6 daily low maximum temperature records and 17 daily low minimum temperature records. Overall, the preliminary statewide average September temperature was 68.8 degrees, 2.0 degrees above the 1991–2020 average and tied for the 27th warmest on record going back to 1895.

Another Dry Month in Illinois

September is not usually a very wet month across Illinois, but September precipitation is still important to finish the soybean crop, help along late harvested specialty crops, give our trees and other plants one last drink before winter, and keep our streams above low flow. Unfortunately, very dry conditions last month, following an extremely dry August, did none of those things. Total September precipitation ranged from less than a quarter of an inch in northwest Illinois to over 5 inches in parts of southern Illinois. Only the south seven counties were wetter than normal last month, while a large swath of central and northern Illinois were 2 to 4 inches drier than normal (Figure 3).

The preliminary statewide total September precipitation was 2.60 inches, 0.75 inches below the 1991–2020 average and the 41st driest on record.

Figure 3. Maps of (left) September total precipitation and (right) September precipitation departures from normal.

Drought Returns in Illinois

Very dry weather in August and September caused a significant expansion and intensification of drought across the state. The September 23rd edition of the U.S. Drought Monitor had moderate drought in 67% of the state and severe drought in nearly 20% of the state, when just 3 months ago only 10% of the state was in any drought level. The dry transition from summer to fall was a substantial pattern change from the extremely wet conditions in spring in southern Illinois. In fact, some areas of the south-central part of the state were having a top-5 wettest year as recently as mid-July, but has only had 10-25% of normal rainfall since then. Meanwhile, the recent dryness has only added to what has been a very dry calendar year and water year (October 1 – September 30) in parts of central and northern Illinois.

Figure 4 shows precipitation departures from normal for the 2024-25 water year (October 1, 2024 – September 30, 2025) and the 2025 calendar year so far. Most of the state north of Interstate 64 was 5 to 10 inches drier than normal in this past water year, with most of the deficit coming in the calendar year 2025. Parts of east-central Illinois, including much of Champaign County, has had over 1 foot less precipitation than normal since the start of 2025. This year to date is the 6th driest on record in Champaign and the driest since 1988. Amazingly, we’ve had 5 fewer inches of precipitation this year in Champaign than in 2012. This year to date is also the 10th driest year on record in Peoria.

Figure 4. Maps of precipitation departures from normal for (left) the 2024-25 water year and (right) the 2025 calendar year through September.

Outlooks

October – in my humble opinion – is the best weather month of the year. Days become noticeably shorter, nights become cooler, and hoodies and shorts become the fashion. However, we may need to wait a bit longer for real fall, because the Climate Prediction Center shows higher odds of a warmer than normal October (Figure 6). Unfortunately, the outlooks also show best chances of another drier than normal month in October.

The most recent outlooks for climatological winter are continuing to lean toward La Niña effects of near normal temperatures but above normal precipitation across much of the state. A wetter late fall and winter would be welcome to improve drought conditions and recharge our soils and streams. For now, let’s enjoy the best of the four seasons.

Figure 5. Temperature and precipitation outlooks for the month of October and the 3-month period between October and December.

Warm, Dry December Concludes a Cold, Wet Year

December temperatures were well above the long-term average across the state, breaking dozens of local daily maximum and minimum temperature records. The preliminary statewide December average temperature was 35.2 degrees, about 5 degrees above the 1981-2010 normal and the 18th warmest on record. Preliminary data show December was drier than average for most of the state. The statewide average December precipitation total was 2.03 inches, 0.66 inches below the 30-year normal.

Data are provisional and may change slightly over time

Warm Weather

Temperatures during the first half of December were very close to average. This was followed by a brief period of well below average temperatures caused by cold air incursion from the north on the back of a strong upper atmosphere trough to our west. On December 20 the predominant wind direction changed to southwesterly, bringing warm, dry air into the region. Temperatures between December 20 and 29 ranged from 5 to 25 degrees above normal across the state. In total, 104 daily high maximum temperature records and 27 daily high minimum temperature records were broken over this time period, including a few dozen records on December 25. In fact, it was the warmest Christmas day at 68 stations across the state. As shown in the figure below, the daily average temperature in Decatur in Macon County on Christmas was nearly 20 degrees above the 30-year normal.

The station in Elgin (Kane County) broke its previous Christmas day high maximum record by 10 degrees. The highest temperature recorded in the state was 70 degrees on December 26 in Wayne County and again on December 29 in Pope County. The lowest temperature was -4 degrees on December 15 in Rock Island County.

A shift in the upper atmosphere and the passage of a cold front late in the month allowed temperatures to moderate. December average temperatures ranged from the low 30s in northern Illinois to the mid-40s in southern Illinois. Monthly average temperature departures ranged from 7 degrees above the long-term mean in northwestern Illinois to just over 1 degree above average in south-central Illinois.

The preliminary 2019 statewide average December temperature was 35.2 degrees, which was the 18th warmest December on record. December’s warm weather was an aberration in an otherwise colder than average 2019 in Illinois. Only three months this year–July, September, and December–exhibited a statewide average temperature above the 30-year normal.

Precipitation

December precipitation was below the long-term average for the entire state. Areas in far southern Illinois received 2 to 3 inches less than average in December, approximately 50 percent of normal December precipitation. The statewide average total December precipitation was 2.03 inches, approximately 0.66 inches below normal. This last month was the 50th driest December on record in Illinois and marked the second straight month of below average statewide precipitation. Preexisting wetness and reduced evaporative demand, typical for this time of the year, have prevented impacts from the prolonged dry conditions. Despite two straight months of well below average precipitation, streamflow and soil moisture were both near normal across the state.

Snowfall totals this last month ranged from less than a tenth of an inch in far southern Illinois to over 10 inches in south-central Illinois. A strong system came through in mid-December and brought several inches of snow to an area spanning the St. Louis Metro East to the Champaign-Urbana area. The highest 24-hour snowfall total was 5.6 inches in Lovington (Moultrie County) on December 17, although CoCoRaHS observers in Mascoutah in St. Clair County and Columbia in Monroe County both recorded 7.5 inches on December 17.

The December snowfall glut in south-central Illinois turned into snowfall deficits of 8 to 10 inches in northern Illinois. This last month was only the 10th December with 1 inch or less of snowfall in Stockton (Jo Daviess County). Despite the small snowfall totals this last month, the seasonal total snowfall was above average for most of the state between interstates 80 and 64. A broad area between Peoria and the St. Louis metro east received over 4 inches of above average snowfall, whereas the Chicagoland region has so far this season experienced a snowfall deficit of 4 to 6 inches.

Outlooks

Short-term 8-14-day outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center show strongly elevated odds of both above normal precipitation and above normal temperature.

Thirty-day outlooks show elevated odds of wetter and warmer than normal conditions to persist throughout January in southern Illinois. Outlooks for January through March and March through May continue to show elevated odds of above normal precipitation for the entire state.

August Near-Normal But Summer Hot, Dry for Illinois

August

After months of exceptionally warm temperatures and drought, Illinois finally experienced temperatures and precipitation closer to normal in August.
The statewide average temperature for August was 73.5 degrees, just 0.1 degree below normal. That’s about as “normal” as you can get.
The statewide average precipitation for August was 3.4 inches, which is 95 percent of normal. In the map below, areas in yellow and orange had 3 to 5 inches, while the areas in red had more than 6 inches. Areas in northern and western Illinois in green received less than 2.5 inches. The largest rainfall total in the state was at Grayville in southeast Illinois with 10.69 inches. In second place was Hoopeston with 8.33 inches.

Summer

The statewide average temperature for the three summer months of June, July, and August was 76.1 degrees, 2.6 degrees above normal. It was the eighth warmest summer on record in Illinois. The warmest was 1936 at 78.6 degrees.
The statewide average precipitation for June-August was 6.64 inches, 5.21 inches below normal. It was the sixth driest summer on record in Illinois. The driest was 1988 with 6.17 inches.

Year to Date

The statewide average temperature for January-August was 59.0 degrees, 4.2 degrees above normal. It was the warmest January-August on record in Illinois. The second warmest was 1921 with 58.3 degrees.
The statewide average precipitation for January-August was 17.45 inches, 7.31 inches below normal. It was the fourth driest January-August on record in Illinois. The driest was 1936 with 14.95 inches, followed by 1988 with 17.12 inches, and 1934 with 17.41 inches.

August precipitation for the last 30 days through the morning of August 31. Source: NWS. Click to enlarge.

Long String of Warm, Dry Weather in Illinois

I have updated the plots of statewide monthly temperature and precipitation departures that start in January 2011 and include July 2012. We struggled with dry weather in 2011 but saw some recovery in November and December. However, every month in 2012 has been below normal. In addition, the last three months have shown increasingly larger departures with July being the worst.

Statewide monthly precipitation departures from normal for Illinois. Click to enlarge.

The statewide monthly temperature departures from January 2011 to July 2012 show that 2011 was a moderately warm year with 9 out of 12 months above normal. But the really warm weather (relative to the time of year) started in November 2011 and never really stopped through July of this year.
Statewide average temperature departures from normal for Illinois. Click to enlarge.