climate prediction center – Illinois State Climatologist

Today the NWS Climate Prediction Center has released their latest outlook for November and this winter. Below are the maps for November temperature, November precipitation, December-February temperature, and December-February precipitation.

For Illinois, November temperatures have equal chances (EC) of being above, below, or near-average. November precipitation is rated as EC except for the northeast quarter of the state, which has an increased chance of below-average precipitation. This is part of a larger area with increased chances of below-average precipitation across the Great Lakes region.

The category of EC is a little hard to interpret. Basically, it means that there are no consistent indications that conditions could be too warm/cold/wet/dry. Sometimes I call it a neutral forecast.

For December-February, the traditional winter months, Illinois has equal chances (EC) of above, below, and near-average temperatures. However, Illinois has an increased chance of below-average precipitation.

Continue reading “NWS Outlook for November and Winter”

The NWS Climate Prediction Center has released the new outlooks for March as well as March-May.
One of the key things to come into play is the status of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. A La Niña event occurs when ocean temperatures are colder-than-normal along the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean basin. The associated ocean and atmospheric pattern tends to give us a wet spring in states along the Ohio River Valley. CPC states that “La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012.” That’s government-talk for saying that the La Niña event is fading fast and will be gone before the end of spring.
The outlook for March in Illinois calls for an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. The outlook for March-May calls for an increased chance of above-normal temperatures throughout the state. However, it shows an increased chance of above-normal precipitation in the eastern half of the state while the western half has “equal chances” of above-, below-, near-normal precipitation.
The new outlook for June-August (maps below), the heart of the growing season, is for an increased chance of above-normal temperatures in southern Illinois and “equal chances” for the rest of the state. The entire state is in “equal chances” with respect to precipitation.
Just a note on “equal chances”. That’s the NWS way of saying that none of their forecasting techniques are indicating a higher risk of unusual temperature or precipitation patterns.

Tag: climate prediction center

NWS Outlook for November and Winter

New Spring Outlook – Warmer and Wetter for Illinois