June – Warmer and Wetter in Illinois, More to Follow

Summary: The statewide average temperature for June so far is 75.3 degrees, 4.4 degrees above normal. The statewide average precipitation for June is 3.61 inches, which is about 130% above normal. However, the precipitation is spread unevenly throughout the state. Above-normal temperatures are expected to continue for July.
Temperature: Both the average high and average low for June has been above normal (maps below). The average high ranged from the low 90s around St. Louis to the upper 80s in the southern two-thirds of Illinois. The average high ranged from the upper 70s to the low 80s in the northern third of the state. The average lows ranged from the upper 50s in northeast Illinois to the 60s for the rest of the state.


Precipitation: Precipitation was highly variable across Illinois, which is fairly typical for summer months (below). There are a few areas in pink with 10 to 15 inches. Areas in shades of orange and red have precipitation amounts of 4 to 10 inches, well above normal. The largest monthly total so far is Beecher City (Effingham County) with 11.22 inches. Meanwhile, rainfall has been less plentiful in western and southern Illinois with amounts of 2 inches or less. Continue reading “June – Warmer and Wetter in Illinois, More to Follow”

Outlook for Spring and Summer from NWS

The new outlooks for March, Spring, and Summer from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center are out.  You can click on any map to see the larger version.
Overview: The NWS says that La Nina conditions continued through January and into early February across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, as indicated by oceanic and atmospheric observations. The CPC/IRI consensus ENSO forecast indicates that La Nina conditions are expected to decay rapidly and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during Spring. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to persist through at least the summer.

March

Parts of Illinois shaded in blue have an increased chance of colder than normal conditions. This is part of a larger area of expected colder conditions that extend from the Midwest westward and is a classic La Nina signal for this region. Current climate conditions do not favor colder or warmer than normal conditions in the rest of Illinois. Current climate conditions do not favor wetter or drier than normal conditions in Illinois in March.

March-April-May

Continue reading “Outlook for Spring and Summer from NWS”

Outlook for Spring and Summer from NWS

The new outlooks for March, Spring, and Summer from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center are out.  You can click on any map to see the larger version.
Overview: The NWS says that La Nina conditions continued through January and into early February across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, as indicated by oceanic and atmospheric observations. The CPC/IRI consensus ENSO forecast indicates that La Nina conditions are expected to decay rapidly and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during Spring. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to persist through at least the summer.

March

Parts of Illinois shaded in blue have an increased chance of colder than normal conditions. This is part of a larger area of expected colder conditions that extend from the Midwest westward and is a classic La Nina signal for this region. Current climate conditions do not favor colder or warmer than normal conditions in the rest of Illinois. Current climate conditions do not favor wetter or drier than normal conditions in Illinois in March.

March-April-May

Continue reading “Outlook for Spring and Summer from NWS”

NWS Outlook for First Half of 2018

The NWS released their new outlooks for the first half of 2018. First of all, the NWS notes that La Niña conditions continue across the Pacific Ocean and will likely persist through the rest of winter. It will likely fade this spring, leading to so-called “ENSO-neutral” conditions, which will continue through summer. “ENSO-neutral” just means that we are between La Niña and El Niño conditions, in other words, neutral.

January

The shorter-range forecasts out to 14 days indicate a shift in the weather pattern bringing warmer and wetter than normal conditions across Illinois. By this Sunday we could be in the 40s and 50s in Illinois (left panel, below) while the prospects of rainfall are high with potential totals of 1/2 to 1 inch over the next 7 days (right panel).


Continue reading “NWS Outlook for First Half of 2018”