The Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) just released their outlook for July as well as July-August-September. In their own words, Illinois has equal chances (EC) of above-, below-, or near-average temperatures and precipitation for this summer. It’s what I would call a “neutral forecast” for us.
On the other hand, the Northern Plains are expected to be cooler and wetter than average for both July and July-September. Meanwhile, much of the South is expected to be warmer than average this summer.
One factor that will not dominate this summer is La Nina. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific along the equator have returned to neutral conditions and will remain so at least through this summer.
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Revised Winter Forecast
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has revised their winter forecast today. Their earlier outlook for December-February called for increased chances of above normal temperatures in the southern two-thirds of Illinois and above normal precipitation for all of Illinois.
However, December is already shaping up to be on the cold and dry side (see earlier post).
Now their outlook for January calls for equal chances of above, below, and near-normal temperature and precipitation in Illinois. It’s what I call a neutral forecast.
In their forecast for January-March, they call for an increased chance of above-normal precipitation in Illinois as well as much of the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region (see map below). Their temperature outlook remains neutral for Illinois for this period.
Updated Forecast for December and Winter
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has come out with a new forecast for December and for December-February (winter). This is part of their routine update cycle.
December
The outlook for December in Illinois calls for an increased chance of above normal temperatures. An increased chance of above normal temperatures translates into just a few degrees above normal. Temperatures in Illinois have run an average of 2.9 degrees above normal for every month since March of this year. Therefore, continuing with a forecast for above-normal temperatures is not surprising.
The outlook calls for equal chances of above, below, or near-normal precipitation (or equal chances as they call it) in December in Illinois.
December-February (winter)
The outlook for December-February remains the same as last month. There is an increased chance of above-normal precipitation for all of Illinois. And, there is an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for the southern two-thirds of the state. See the figure below for more details.
Winter Outlook for Illinois – Wetter and Warmer
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their official winter outlook today. The major influence in this winter’s weather will be the moderate to strong La Niña event occurring in the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation
The winter outlook calls for an increased chance of above-normal precipitation across Illinois. They also state that the Ohio River Valley (including Illinois) is … “likely to see increased storminess and flooding.” Other studies have shown an increase in snowfall in the Great Lakes region during past La Niña events, especially in the January-March period.
Temperature
The southern two-thirds of the state has an increased chance of above-normal temperature. Meanwhile the northern third of Illinois has “equal chances” of above-, below-, or normal temperatures. This basically means that their forecast tools are providing no guidance on winter temperatures in northern Illinois, including the Chicago area.
