Trent Ford – Illinois State Climatologist

March 4, 2026

Dry and Mild February Ends an Otherwise Cold Winter

The preliminary statewide average February temperature was 33.8 degrees, 2.8 degrees above the 1991–2020 normal, 4.6 degrees above the 20^th Century average, 2.8 degrees above the most recent 30-year average, and it tied for 29^th warmest February on record going back to 1895.

The preliminary statewide average total February precipitation was 0.54 inches, 1.57 inches below the 1991–2020 normal, 1.32 inches below the 20^th Century average, 1.65 inches below the most recent 30-year average, and the 5^th driest February on record statewide.

Data are provisional and may change slightly over time

Mild February Temperatures with Some Cold Breaks

Most perceive February weather as consistently cold and dreary. But February often brings some of the largest day-to-day temperature swings in Illinois. Figure 1 shows daily temperature departures from normal in Pana last month. The first week of February was mainly 5 to 15 degrees cooler than normal, followed by a prolonged period of temperatures that were 5 to 25 degrees warmer than normal.

Daily average temperatures and departures from normal in Pana, Illinois. — **Figure 1**. Daily February average temperatures and departures in Pana.

February average temperatures ranged from the low 40s in southern Illinois to the high 20s in northern Illinois, between 1 and 7 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal (Figure 2). During the peak of extreme cold in early February, many stations across Illinois recorded nighttime low temperatures well below 0, including -8 degrees in Paris and -2 in Aurora. Meanwhile, the milder weather in mid-February brought some impressive daytime highs including 77 degrees in Cahokia Heights and 72 in Moline. The coldest place in the state last month was Stockton in Jo Daviess County with an average February temperature of 28.5 degrees, and the warmest place in the state was Crab Orchard in Williamson County with an average temperature of 41.5 degrees.

The milder weather last month broke 76 daily high maximum temperature records and 31 daily high minimum temperature records. Meanwhile, the extreme cold in early February and the third week of the month broke 2 daily low maximum temperature records and 1 daily low minimum temperature record.

Maps of February average temperature and February average temperature departures from normal. — **Figure 2.** Maps of (left) February average temperature and (right) February average temperature departures from normal.

Overall, the preliminary statewide average February temperature was 33.8 degrees, 2.8 degrees above the 1991–2020 normal, 4.6 degrees above the 20th Century average, 2.8 degrees above the most recent 30-year average, and it tied for 29th warmest February on record going back to 1895.

Cold Start, Mild End to Winter

Climatological winter runs from December through February and is the coldest season of the year in Illinois. Midwest winters have warmed at a much faster rate than the other three seasons over the past 100+ years because of human-caused climate change. Consequently, many of the past decade’s winter seasons have been very mild. The 2025-26 winter somewhat bucked that trend in December and certainly in January, when temperatures were 1 to 4 degrees below the 1991-2020 normals. , with December temperatures that were 1 to 6 degrees warmer than normal. However, the mild weather in mid-February pushed the meteorological winter average temperatures a bit closer to the 1991-2020 normals (Figure 3). In fact, much of the western third of the state ended winter with slightly warmer than normal temperatures.

Overall, the preliminary statewide average winter temperature was 28.8 degrees, 0.9 degrees below the 1991–2020 normal, 0.8 degrees above the 20^th Century average, and 1.2 degrees below the most recent 30-year average. If confirmed, last season would be tied for 63^rd warmest winter on record in Illinois.

**Figure 3**. Maps of average temperature departures from the 1991-2020 normals for December, January, February, and meteorological winter.

Extremely Dry February Worsens Drought

February is normally one of the driest months of the year, but even among typically drier conditions last month was extreme. Total February precipitation ranged from less than a quarter of an inch in much of northern Illinois to just over 3 inches in isolated parts of south-central Illinois. The state was 1 to 4 inches drier than normal last month (Figure 4).

February total precipitation and February precipitation departure from normal. — **Figure 4**. February total precipitation (left) and February precipitation departure from normal (right).

Last month was the driest February on record in Moline (Trace), the second driest on record in Rockford (0.12”), the third driest on record in Chicago (0.16”), the third driest on record in Springfield (0.45”), the second driest on record in Champaign-Urbana (0.18”), the third driest on record in Carbondale (0.51”), and the second driest on record in Mt. Vernon (0.08”).

Not only was last month the driest February on record in Moline, but it was the only month (of any calendar month) on record there to not record any measurable precipitation. Records in Moline go back to 1872, meaning February 2026 was the driest month in the Quad Cities in the last 154 years, or – put another way – the driest month since at least the Ulysses S. Grant administration.

Although December and January were not as extremely dry as February, they were not remarkably wet either. The preliminary statewide total meteorological winter precipitation in Illinois was 3.24 inches, which is 3.73 inches below the 1991-2020 normal, 3.07 inches below the 20^th Century average, and 3.75 inches below the most recent 30-year average. If confirmed, the 2025-26 winter season would be the fifth driest on record in Illinois, and the driest since 1976-77. The winter was the 7^th driest on record in Springfield, the 5^th driest on record in Champaign-Urbana, the 8^th driest on record in Quincy, and the driest on record in Carbondale.

Flipped Snow Pattern in Illinois

I am contractually obligated to remind everyone that Illinois often – if not normally – gets some measurable snowfall in March, and occasionally in April. So, the “snowfall season” is not yet complete; however, meteorological winter (December – February) almost always contain most of the snowfall in the state. December brought an active winter stormtrack through central Illinois and produced above average snowfall for the northern half of the state, particularly along the Interstate 72 corridor between Quincy and Danville. January was exceptionally snowy in southern Illinois; however, much of northern Illinois experienced a snow drought. February united the entire state with a substantial lack of snow, and the 2025-26 meteorological winter overall was much snowier than normal in southern and parts of central Illinois, and it was a disappointing snow winter in northern Illinois (Figure 5).

**Figure 5**. Maps show snowfall departures from the 1991-2020 normals in December, January, February, and meteorological winter.

March & Spring Outlooks

After a nearly record dry winter, we need rain in a bad way! Fortunately, March begins meteorological spring, which is typically one of the wettest seasons across Illinois. And even better news: the most recent Climate Prediction Center outlooks show good chances of wetter than normal weather in March (Figure 6). Models are also bullish for a milder start to spring with above average temperatures this month.

Climate Prediction Center temperature and precipitation outlooks for March. — **Figure 6**. Climate Prediction Center (left) temperature and (right) precipitation outlooks for March.

The spring season outlooks (March–May) also show higher chances of above normal precipitation, which is also good news. Meanwhile, there is not much of a temperature signal, with equal chances of a warmer and cooler than normal spring (Figure 7).

Climate Prediction Center temperature and precipitation outlooks for March through May. — **Figure 7**. Climate Prediction Center (left) temperature and (right) precipitation outlooks for March through May.

February 4, 2026February 23, 2026

2026 Began with a Cold and Dry January

The preliminary statewide average January temperature was 23.5 degrees, 3.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 average and tied for the 41^st coldest on record going back to 1895. The preliminary statewide average total January precipitation was 1.19 inches, 1.12 inches below the 1991-2020 average and tied for the 28^th driest on record statewide.

Data are provisional and may change slightly over time.

A Tale of Two Temperature Months

Of all the crazy weather months in Illinois, January has the largest average day to day temperature variability, and those wild swings were on full display last month. Daily temperatures and departures from normal in Galesburg show that days in first half of the month was 5 to 25 degrees warmer than normal, and days in the second half of the month were 5 to 25 degrees colder than normal (Figure 1).

The figure shows daily average temperatures and temperature departures from normal in Galesburg for January 2026. — **Figure 1**. Daily January average temperature departures in Galesburg.

January average temperatures ranged from the high teens in northwest Illinois to the mid-30s in far southern Illinois, between 1 and 3 degrees below normal (Figure 2). Snowpack in the southern part of the state during the latter half of January kept both daytime and nighttime temperatures well below average, compared to relatively snow-less northern Illinois.

The warmest point in the state last month was Olmstead at 32.0 degrees, and the coldest point in the state was Stockton at 16.4 degrees. The warm start to the month broke 74 daily high maximum temperature records and 60 daily high minimum temperature records. The extreme cold in the back half of January broke 74 daily low maximum temperature records and 33 daily low minimum temperature records, including -13 degrees in Springfield. Lawrenceville set a new all-time January high temperature record of 68 degrees on January 9^th.

Maps show the January average temperatures and average temperature departures from normal across Illinois. — **Figure 2**. Maps of (left) January average temperature and (right) January average temperature departures from normal.

Overall, the preliminary statewide average January temperature was 23.5 degrees, 3.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 average and tied for the 41^st coldest on record going back to 1895.

Snowy, but Dry?

Last month was a good example of why snowy and wet are two different descriptions of winter weather. Multiple strong winter storms moved through the mid-south in the latter half of January, bringing a lot of snow to the southern half of Illinois. Five counties had locations that approached or exceeded their one-day snowfall records on Jan. 19, including over 13 inches in Jackson County. Although the heavy snow was disruptive to travel, it was preferable to the devastating ice accumulation farther south in places like Nashville.

Overall, January total snowfall ranged from less than 3 inches in northwest Illinois to some isolated pockets of 20 inches in southern Illinois. The northern half of the state only had 10-75% of normal January snowfall, while much of southern Illinois had 200-500% of normal snowfall (Figure 3).

Maps show January total snowfall and January snowfall departures from normal across Illinois. — **Figure 3**. Maps of (left) January total snowfall and (right) January snowfall departures from normal

Plenty of cold air was present when the winter storms moved through our state in the latter half of January, and while this was helpful to produce some impressive snowfall totals, it also limited the liquid water content of the snow. Consequentially, parts of southern Illinois that had 300% or more normal snowfall were also 1 to 2 inches drier than normal last month. In fact, most of the state outside of a narrow band from Peoria to Chicago was 1 to 3 inches drier than normal last month (Figure 4). Only a few places saw more than 3 inches of total January precipitation, while some parts of northwest Illinois had less than an inch for the entire month.

Overall, the preliminary statewide average total January precipitation was 1.19 inches, 1.12 inches below the 1991-2020 average and tied for the 28^th driest on record statewide.

Maps show January total precipitation and precipitation departures from normal across Illinois. — **Figure 4**. Maps show (left) January total precipitation and (right) precipitation departure from normal across Illinois.

Drought Continues

Winter drought in Illinois is strange, both in concept and reality. Cold weather and dormant vegetation reduce evaporation, ice formation makes it hard to observe impacts on streams and in soils, and an abundant (but dry) snowpack can be deceiving. That said, there is no doubt that Illinois is still dealing with an intense drought that began in 2025. The period between August 2025 and January 2026 was a top 10 driest on record in most of central Illinois (Figure 5). Bloomington-Normal only received 7.10 inches of precipitation between Aug. 1 and Jan. 31, which was the fifth driest of any six-month period on record there and the driest six months since 1980.

The topsoil, once thawed, may be relatively wet because of recent snowmelt; however, measurements from the Illinois Climate Network show deeper layer soils, especially below 12-15” depth, are still very dry. The water table at the Illinois Climate Network station in Peoria is 8 feet deeper than normal this time of the year and is the deepest it has been since measurements began in the 1990s. Accordingly, the most recent US Drought Monitor released on Jan. 29 showed over 60% of the state was still in moderate drought, and much of east-central Illinois remained in extreme drought. Champaign County has been in extreme drought for 14 consecutive weeks ending on Jan. 29, marking the longest such period since the Drought Monitor began in 2000. Although we typically don’t expect a lot of precipitation in February, wetter weather this month would be very welcome to start improving long-standing drought in the state.

Outlooks

The Climate Prediction Center outlooks, reflecting model tendencies and expert assessments, continue to lean into La Niña influence on our late winter and early spring weather across the U.S. Here in Illinois, the expectation is for below normal temperatures this month, with equal chances of wetter and drier weather. Outlooks for February through April show better chances of wetter than normal weather to transition from winter and spring, which would be wonderful to make headway on our drought (Figure 5).

Maps show temperature and precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center for the period between February and April, 2026. — **Figure 5**. Maps show (left) temperature and (right) precipitation outlooks for the month of February (top) and February through April (bottom).

January 13, 2026January 16, 2026

2025 Was Warm and Dry in Illinois

Illinois was both warmer and wetter than the 1991–2020 normal in 2025. The statewide average annual temperature was 53.6 degrees, 1.0 degree above normal and the 18^th warmest year on record statewide. Statewide average total precipitation in 2025 was 32.94 inches, 7.8 inches below normal and the 23^rd driest year on record statewide.

Summary figure of 2025 weather in Illinois. It was the 18th warmest and 23rd driest year on record in Illinois. Some of the more noteworthy weather events included multiple heavy rain and flooding events in Chicago, a very large dust storm in central and northeast Illinois in May, and the 2nd driest year on record and driest since 1894 in Champaign-Urbana.

Another Very Warm Year in Illinois

The past year was very warm in Illinois, especially outside of climatological winter. March led the way with average temperatures that were over 6 degrees warmer than normal, and July, September, and October were all at least 2 degrees warmer than normal. Meanwhile, January and December were both 2 degrees colder than normal statewide, and below normal temperatures in February, May, and August as well (Figure 1).

**Figure 1**. Plot shows 2025 statewide monthly average temperature (black line) and temperature departures from the 1991–2020 normal (red and blue bars).

Average temperatures in Illinois last year ranged from the high 40s in northern Illinois to the high 50s in southern Illinois, between 1 and 3 degrees above normal (Figure 2). The year 2025 was the 15^th warmest on record in Chicago, and the 20^th warmest on record in Peoria. The warmest point in the state last year was Bean Ridge in Alexander County with an average temperature of 60.5 degrees. The coolest point in the state was Stockton in Jo Daviess County with an average temperature of 48 degrees.

**Figure 2**. Maps show 2025 annual average temperature (left) and average temperature departures from the 1991–2020 normal (right).

Although 2025 was not nearly as warm statewide as 2024, the average temperature in Illinois last year was still well above the 20^th century average. Last year was indeed another data point in a clear warming trend in Illinois, indicative of our changing climate (Figure 3). Models project continued warming in Illinois throughout the rest of this century, as summarized in the 2021 Illinois Climate Assessment and 2023 National Climate Assessment.

**Figure 3**. Illinois statewide annual average temperatures between 1895 and 2025 and the upward trend indicating warming and Illinois’ changing climate. Statewide climate data are available at NOAA’s Climate at a Glance.

Table 1 shows the number of daily weather records broken at Illinois Cooperative Observer stations in each month of 2025. A brief but intense cold spell in February broke 64 daily low maximum temperature records and 36 daily low minimum temperature records. Our very mild, if not warm, March broke 77 daily high maximum temperature and 41 daily high minimum temperature records. Meanwhile, intense June humidity broke to 102 daily high minimum temperature records, and storms in July broke 90 daily precipitation records statewide. Overall, 679 high daily record temperatures were broken last year, 418 low daily record temperatures were broken, and 435 daily precipitation records were broken.

Daily	High Maximum Temperature	High Minimum Temperature	Low Maximum Temperature	Low Minimum Temperature	High Precipitation
January	9	28	27	13	21
February	24	16	64	36	24
March	77	41	0	0	33
April	12	5	3	0	73
May	39	8	32	1	50
June	14	102	2	1	46
July	1	23	4	0	90
August	3	29	24	44	17
September	65	3	6	17	12
October	27	10	0	1	48
November	42	13	5	3	12
December	43	45	69	66	9
Total	356	323	236	182	435

Table 1. Table shows the number of daily local weather records in 2025 by month and variable.

Overall, the statewide average annual temperature was 53.6 degrees, 1.0 degree above normal and the 18th warmest year on record statewide.

2025 Precipitation

Calendar year 2025 was very dry in Illinois, as all but 2 months last year were drier than normal (Figure 4). Only April and July were wetter than normal statewide. Some of the more extreme precipitation months included the 6^th driest August on record statewide (1.74 inches), the 11^th driest September on record (1.36 inches), and the 9^th wettest July on record (6.23 inches).

**Figure 4**. 2025 monthly total precipitation as a departure from the 1991–2020 normal.

As is seemingly a perennial occurrence, June and July brought multiple rounds of extremely heavy rainfall in Illinois. Most of far southern Illinois had 8 to 10 inches of precipitation in June, following an extremely wet late spring in the region. Following the very wet month of June, parts of Fayette County in south-central Illinois experienced more than 12 inches of rain in a single day. Never to be outdone, the Chicagoland was subsequently impacted by extremely heavy rainfall in July, Including over 5 inches of rain in less than 90 minutes around the United Center on the west side.

For the fourth consecutive year Illinois fell back into drought in the late summer and fall as each of the last five months of the year were at least 0.75 inches drier than normal statewide. Total precipitation in August and September statewide was only 3.1 inches, less than 50% of normal and the third driest August to September period on record in Illinois. Once again, the region’s largest rivers approached low stage, including along the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio Rivers, causing some moderate challenges to shipping. The dry fall weather was beneficial to harvest, but depleted moisture throughout the soil and caused near-record low flow conditions in several Illinois streams including the Sangamon and Vermilion Rivers. Dry conditions persisted through the rest of fall and into the first month of winter, causing a significant expansion of moderate to extreme drought across Illinois.

Figure 5 shows the spatial variability of 2025 precipitation in more detail. Total precipitation last year ranged from nearly 60 inches in far southern Illinois to less than 30 inches in east-central Illinois. Much of southern and southeast Illinois were 1 to 5 inches wetter than normal in 2025, while most of central and northern Illinois were 1 to 10 inches drier than normal (Figure 5).

**Figure 5**. Maps show (left) total precipitation and (right) precipitation departures in 2025.

A CoCoRaHS citizen science observer in Metropolis in Massac County had 67.09 inches of precipitation in 2025, making the birth of Superman the wettest point in the state for two consecutive years. Meanwhile, two other CoCoRaHS observer in Savoy in Champaign County and White Heath in Piatt County had less than 22 inches of precipitation in 2025. Last year was the 2^nd driest year on record in Champaign-Urbana and the driest since 1894 with only 24.45 inches. 2025 was also a top 10 driest year on record in Peoria and Springfield, and the 12^th driest on record in Quincy.

Overall, Statewide average total precipitation in 2025 was 32.94 inches, 7.8 inches below normal and the 23rd driest year on record statewide.

2025 Severe Weather

Following the most tornadoes on record statewide in 2024, Illinois had another very active severe weather year… at least until July. Overall, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center reported a preliminary 146 tornadoes in 2025, but that total will likely decrease before the official count is released. Figure 6 shows the monthly frequency of tornadoes in 2025 compared to the 1995-2024 averages. March through June had well above average tornado frequency, followed by a large dropoff in tornadoes, and storms more generally, between August and November. It is likely the 2025 tornado total will be adjusted, but irrespective of changes, the year was another extremely active tornado year in Illinois.

**Figure 6**. Plot shows tornado frequency by month in 2025 (blue bars) compared to the 1995-2024 average (red bars).

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center also had 167 severe hail reports and 656 severe wind reports in Illinois in 2025. Some of the wind reports came from strong, non-thunderstorm winds that caused a dust storm in central and northern Illinois, including the city of Chicago in mid-May.

2025 Snowfall

Snowfall in calendar year 2025 was a tale of two very different seasons. As shown in Figure 7, most of the state had 3 to 18 inches below average snowfall between January and May last year, with the exception of a band of snowier weather in southern Illinois. However, multiple rounds of heavy snowfall in November and December gave much of central and northern Illinois 10 to 20 inches above average snowfall, somewhat evening out the lackluster spring snow (Figure 7). Overall, 2025 ended with snowfall deficits between 3 and 10 inches in northern Illinois, and snowfall surpluses between 3 and 15 inches in central and southern Illinois.

**Figure 7**. Maps of snowfall departures from normal across Illinois, showing departures from (left) January through May, (middle) September through December, and (right) the entire year of 2025.

While 2025 didn’t break any snowfall records for the state, it was considerably snowier than recent years. In fact, 2025 was the first year where the statewide average snowfall was above the 1991-2020 normal since 2021, and was the snowiest year in Illinois since 2019 (Figure 8).

**Figure 8**. Illinois statewide average snowfall each year between 1902 and 2025. The blue line shows annual snowfall totals and the red line shows the 5-year moving average ending in each year.

January 5, 2026January 13, 2026

Cool and Dry Start to Winter

The preliminary statewide average December temperature was 29.1 degrees, 2.5 degrees below the 1991–2020 average and tied for 53^rd coolest on record going back to 1895. The preliminary statewide average total December precipitation was 1.50 inches, 0.93 inches below the 1991–2020 average and the 29^th driest on record statewide.

Data are provisional and may change slightly over time.

Roller Coaster Temperatures

Day-to-day temperature variability in Illinois is highest in climatological winter, and December followed suit with huge dips and jumps in daily temperature, as shown in Figure 1 from Decatur. Daily average temperatures were 25 to 40 degrees below normal in the second week of the month and were 15 to 25 degrees above normal days around Christmas (Figure 1). Decatur broke its daily low temperature record with a -14-degree low on December 14^th and broke a daily high temperature record with a 69-degree high on December 28^th.

**Figure 1**. Daily December average temperature departures in Decatur.

When taken altogether, December average temperatures ranged from low 20s in northwest Illinois to low 40s in far southern Illinois. December was 1 to 5 degrees cooler than normal in the northern half of the state, and near to around 1 degree warmer than normal in southern Illinois (Figure 2). The warmest place in the state last month was Olmstead in Pulaski County with an average December temperature of 38.4 degrees. The coolest place in the state was Stockton in Jo Daviess County with an average December temperature of 22.3 degrees.

**Figure 2**. Maps of (left) December average temperature and (right) December average temperature departures from normal.

The extremely mid days last month broke 43 daily high maximum temperature records and 45 daily high minimum temperature records. Morrisonville in Christian County broke its all-time December high temperature record with a 72-degree high on December 29^th. Meanwhile the extreme cold mid-month broke 69 daily low maximum temperature records and 66 daily low minimum temperature records. Six places broke their all-time December low minimum temperature records, including -14 degrees in Decatur and -10

Overall, the preliminary statewide average December temperature was 29.1 degrees, 2.5 degrees below the 1991–2020 average and tied for 53rd coolest on record going back to 1895.

The Paradox of a Dry December with Plentiful Snow

December reminded us of the difference between total precipitation and total snowfall. Most folks think about snowfall as inches of accumulation, but for the climate and our water balance, the liquid water content of the snow that matters most. Case in point, northern and central Illinois had higher-than-normal snowfall last month, with totals ranging from 3 to 20 inches (Figure 3). Parts of central Illinois received over 400% of normal December snowfall, including 15.5 inches in Fisher and 12.8 inches in Bloomington. However, one inch of snowfall in Illinois usually yields between 0.05 inches and 0.10 inches of liquid water, meaning that even the highest snowfall totals last month equated to only around 1 to 2 inches of liquid precipitation.

**Figure 3**. Maps show (left) December snowfall totals and (right) December snowfall percent of normal in Illinois.

Overall, December total precipitation ranged from around 4 inches in northeast Illinois to less than half an inch in southwest Illinois (Figure 4). Most of the northern half of the state was near to slightly wetter than normal last month, while the southern half of the state was 1 to 3 inches drier than normal. Morrisonville had its driest December on record (going back to 1948) with only 0.60 inches last month.

Overall, the preliminary statewide average total December precipitation was 1.50 inches, 0.93 inches below the 1991–2020 average and the 29th driest on record statewide.

**Figure 4**. Maps show (left) December total precipitation and (right) December precipitation departure from normal.

Outlooks

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for January show an extension of colder-than-normal conditions from the northern Plains into much of northern Illinois and the Great Lakes region. January Outlooks show equal chances of above and below normal precipitation for the first month of 2026 (Figure 5).