Updated El Nino Forecast

There is a 95% chance that El Niño will continue through winter and gradually weaken through spring 2016, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center today. That remains essentially unchanged from last month’s outlook. As noted in a earlier post, this increases the chances of a mild winter in Illinois.

Here are the recent sea surface temperatures, as a departure from the average, in the Pacific Ocean basin. The units are in degrees Celsius, so just double the number to get the approximate departure in degrees Fahrenheit.  This represents an impressive amount of heat, considering that these warmer water temperatures cover thousands of square miles.

The traditional area for El Niño formation is circled and labeled on the map. The one wild card in the current situation is that we have exceptionally warm waters farther to the north than what I have seen in past El Niño episodes (green circle). This could potentially change the impacts of El Niño over North America.

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Click to enlarge. Source NOAA http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Hot, Dry Start to September in Illinois

Illinois and the rest of the Midwest are off to a hot start in September. As the map below shows, areas in shades of brown were up to 9 degrees above average. This includes southern Illinois and much of the southern states in the Midwest. The areas in pinks and red were even farther above average, some 9 to 12 degrees above average. This includes most of the northern half of Illinois, as well as northern Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan.

Cooler and more seasonable weather is expected in Illinois after today.

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Continue reading “Hot, Dry Start to September in Illinois”

Cool, Dry August and Sixth Wettest Summer in Illinois

August was cool across the state and dry in most places in Illinois, capping off a summer that was cool and wet.

Precipitation

The statewide average precipitation for August in Illinois was 2.95 inches, 0.64 inches below average.  However, this was followed by a very wet June with 9.44 inches, and a wet July with 4.84 inches. As a result, the summer precipitation total was 17.23 inches. That was 5.36 inches above average and the 6th wettest summer on record.

Here are the top ten wettest summer in Illinois. It was wetter than last summer and 2010, but nearly an inch away from the incredible summer of 1993.

Rank Year Total Departure % of Average
1 1993 18.51 6.64 156
2 1902 18.14 6.27 153
3 1981 17.62 5.75 148
4 1915 17.58 5.71 148
5 1958 17.53 5.66 148
6 2015 17.23 5.36 144
7 2010 16.24 4.37 137
8 1907 15.78 3.91 133
9 2000 15.26 3.39 129
10 2014 15.25 3.38 128

The precipitation for August was unevenly distributed, which is typical in the summer months. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches were common in northern Illinois and points east of St. Louis. Continue reading “Cool, Dry August and Sixth Wettest Summer in Illinois”