Seasonal Outlooks for Illinois

Last week, the Climate Prediction Center released their outlooks for February and beyond. There is nothing exciting to report for Illinois. Both the outlook for February and the 3-month outlook for February-April have us in “EC” or equal chances of above, below, and near-average temperature and precipitation. See map below (click to enlarge). That’s not bad news – it means there are no increased risks of a colder than average winter.  Continue reading “Seasonal Outlooks for Illinois”

Quiet Winter for Snowfall across central US

Snowfall across the central US has been slightly below average so far this winter and stands in stark contrast to last winter. However, the impact on soil moisture, rivers, and streams has been minimal.

Here is an example of snowfall differences. At Chicago O’Hare airport the snowfall total for this winter through January 14 is 13.7 inches. Last year through this date it was 35.0 inches and the 1981-2010 average is 14.2 inches.

In the first map are the snowfall departures for this winter. All the areas in tan or beige are up to 10 inches below average. That includes almost all of Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, and Kentucky, as well as large portions of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio. Areas in green are above average and include a small area in far southern Illinois and another around Moline. Snowfall is above average across upper Wisconsin and the Michigan UP.  Continue reading “Quiet Winter for Snowfall across central US”

New Report on the 2012 Drought

coverA new report on the 2012 drought was released, providing a state by state account of the impacts of the 2012 drought that struck the Midwest and High Plains. While the drought was largely confined to 2012, some areas did not recover until 2013. And it took time to collect all the data and impacts.

Here is a quote by me from the press release …

“Our ability to monitor and assess drought conditions gets better and better each year as new data networks and monitoring products become available,” said Jim Angel, Illinois state climatologist and one of the authors of the report. “Another standout feature in the 2012 drought was the sheer volume and quality of data coming from state-level monitoring networks, providing measurements rarely collected elsewhere like soil moisture and soil temperature.”

You can find the press release, the executive summary, and the full report at the National Drought Mitigation Center website:

Press Release

Executive Summary

Full Report

Latest News – 6th Coldest Year on Record for Illlinois

The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) released their numbers for 2014 and Illinois ended up at 49.5 degrees and the 6th coldest year on record for Illinois. Other Midwestern and southern states experienced one of the 10 coldest years for their particular state. Meanwhile,  many of the western states experienced one of their warmest years on record. In fact, the two extremes cancelled out leaving the US ranked as the 34th warmest on record.

This result differs from an earlier post where I calculated the 2014 temperature at 49.4 degrees (0.1 degrees colder) based on available data right at the start of the new year. This new calculation moved us from 4th to 6th place in the list. I normally defer to the NCDC numbers and rankings as the final answer on the subject. However, it’s important to keep in mind that their numbers are preliminary as well so the final number and ranking may not be settled for another month or two as more data arrives and is processed.

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