NWS Outlook for November and Winter

Today the NWS Climate Prediction Center has released their latest outlook for November and this winter. Below are the maps for November temperature, November precipitation, December-February temperature, and December-February precipitation.

For Illinois, November temperatures have equal chances (EC) of being above, below, or near-average. November precipitation is rated as EC except for the northeast quarter of the state, which has an increased chance of below-average precipitation. This is part of a larger area with increased chances of below-average precipitation across the Great Lakes region.

The category of EC is a little hard to interpret. Basically, it means that there are no consistent indications that conditions could be too warm/cold/wet/dry. Sometimes I call it a neutral forecast.

For December-February, the traditional winter months, Illinois has equal chances (EC) of above, below, and near-average temperatures. However, Illinois has an increased chance of below-average precipitation.

Continue reading “NWS Outlook for November and Winter”

El Nino and the Midwest

NOAA has released a new 2-page fact sheet on El Niño and the Midwest (links below). Several people in the Midwest had input into this, including myself. El Niño typically results in warmer and drier than average winters. Confidence in these patterns is higher during stronger El Niño events.

Right now the NOAA Climate Prediction Center states that El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into spring of 2015. The current thinking is that the odds are 2-in-3 in favor of it arriving and that the event will likely remain weak throughout its duration.

PDF version: EN-MW-Sep2014

Online version:

[scribd id=242836832 key=key-2ql4MIpJSjgpfv25L5Zd mode=scroll]

October Cooler and Wetter Than Average So Far in Illinois

The statewide average temperature for October so far in Illinois is 56.5 degrees, 1.4 degrees below average. The statewide average precipitation for October so far is 2.5 inches.

Here is the map showing how the precipitation has fallen in Illinois and surrounding states. The heaviest amounts in Illinois were the 3 to 5 inches between Interstates 70 and 74. Amounts of 1 to 3 inches were common in the northern and southern thirds of the state. The largest total so far is 8.38 inches reported at Greenfield in Greene County

Most of Missouri has seen amounts of 3 to 6 inches or more as well as parts of Indiana and Michigan. It was a little drier in the Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and the rest of Indiana where amounts of 0.5 to 2 inches were common.
map_btd  Continue reading “October Cooler and Wetter Than Average So Far in Illinois”

First Snow in Illinois

Traces of snow were reported in Chicago and Rockford on October 4. A few years ago I did a post on the earliest and median dates for the first measurable snowfall of the season. Measurable means at least 0.1 inches or more.  Snow flurries or traces of snow do not count since they have not been tracked closely in the historical weather records.

No real surprises for anyone who has experienced winter in Illinois. The earliest dates of measurable snow are in the late October, early November time frame. And the median dates range from late November in northern Illinois to the second half of December in southern Illinois. Even so, the dates can vary considerably between nearby sites since many of the early season snows are sporadic and not very widespread.

firstsnow-earliest-stn-Illinois

Continue reading “First Snow in Illinois”