In the last few days there have been a number of articles like this one in the Peoria Journal Star about the slowdown of barge traffic along the Mississippi River due to the Midwest drought.
As the article mentions, we faced a similar situation in 1988. Stan Changnon, Illinois State Water Survey, wrote about the costs and other issues related to this in an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Basically, in 1988 the barge industry lost about $1 billion due to low flows on the Mississippi as well as the Missouri and Illinois Rivers. The winner turned out to be the railroad industry as shippers scrambled to find alternative transportation for grain and raw materials.
Here is the graph of water levels on the Mississippi River at Chester, IL (south of St. Louis) since 2011. As you may recall, record rains in spring of 2011 caused much flooding on the lower Mississippi River. In fact, they had to blow some levies to save Cairo, Illinois. After facing heights of up to 40 feet in May 2011, levels fell throughout the rest of 2011 before leveling out in the winter and spring 2012. Since May of this year they dropped again to a current gauge height of about 1 foot. All these heights are in reference to the bottom of the gauge, not the bottom of the river. There is still water in the river – just not much.
You can find more of these at the USGS streamflow web site.
Recent Rains Help in Parts of Illinois
Both rainfall totals and temperatures in August look far more promising than July. Here is the breakdown by climate division in August for Illinois. I apologize for the formatting – you will have to scroll left and right to see the entire table. By the way, in Illinois the climate divisions and crop reporting districts cover the same areas (see map below). I have a set of tables like these that update daily at Current Conditions in Illinois.
Temperatures for August are running 0.3 to 2.3 degrees below normal. Precipitation is running 0.4 to 1.4 inches below normal in the climate divisions to the north and west. The remaining climate divisions are above normal.
Illinois
08/01/2012 to 08/20/2012
Climate <------Temperature-----> <---------Precipitation--------->
Division Actual Normal Dev Actual Normal Dev Percent
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northwest 69.4 71.7 -2.3 1.97 2.98 -1.01 66
Northeast 70.0 71.7 -1.7 1.97 2.84 -0.87 69
West 72.0 74.1 -2.1 1.08 2.50 -1.42 43
Central 71.3 73.2 -1.9 2.04 2.51 -0.47 81
East 71.0 72.6 -1.6 3.06 2.59 0.47 118
West-southwest 73.3 74.8 -1.4 2.31 2.16 0.14 107
East-southeast 73.7 74.8 -1.1 3.38 2.20 1.19 154
Southwest 75.8 76.1 -0.3 2.56 2.21 0.35 116
Southeast 75.7 76.2 -0.5 3.19 2.05 1.14 156
State 72.3 73.8 -1.5 2.39 2.46 -0.07 97
Dev means Deviation From Normal, Percent means Percent of Normal
Here are the temperatures and precipitation since January 1, 2012. While the recent rains are welcome, significant long-term precipitation deficits remain across the state.
Illinois
01/01/2012 to 08/20/2012
Climate <------Temperature-----> <---------Precipitation--------->
Division Actual Normal Dev Actual Normal Dev Percent
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northwest 54.7 50.1 4.6 16.05 24.09 -8.04 67
Northeast 54.7 50.1 4.7 17.32 24.06 -6.73 72
West 57.4 53.1 4.3 14.39 24.77 -10.38 58
Central 56.8 52.5 4.4 14.19 24.57 -10.38 58
East 56.6 52.1 4.5 17.41 24.92 -7.51 70
West-southwest 59.0 54.6 4.4 18.17 24.71 -6.54 74
East-southeast 59.4 54.9 4.4 18.30 26.88 -8.58 68
Southwest 61.2 56.8 4.5 19.18 27.68 -8.50 69
Southeast 61.7 57.0 4.6 19.24 29.28 -10.04 66
State 57.8 53.3 4.5 17.12 25.52 -8.40 67
Latest Outlooks for September and the Fall
On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their outlooks for September and the 3-month period of September – November. For Illinois, they foresee an increased risk of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in September. Also, they foresee an increased risk of above-normal temperatures for September – November. They are taking a neutral stand on fall precipitation, saying that there are equal chances of above, below and near-normal precipitation.
The other news they have is that their drought outlook (second figure) shows expected improvement in the drought north of Interstate 74 in the upcoming months. Some improvement is expected in southern Illinois. However, they expect drought to persist in western Illinois through at least the end of November.
Rain in Central and Southern Illinois on August 16
A cold front swept through the state on Thursday (August 16), triggering some impressive thunderstorms ahead of it. An area along Interstate 74 from Peoria to Champaign and an area between Interstates 64 and 70 received over an inch of rain (see map). Meanwhile, areas west of Springfield and north of Peoria received little or no rain.
The largest rainfall totals include Vandalia with 2.71 inches and Farmer City with 2.66 inches. Champaign received 1.82 inches while Bloomington had 1.93 inches, Decatur had 1.24 inches, and Peoria had 1.02 inches. Meanwhile Springfield received only 0.28 inches.
