NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their June and June-August outlook yesterday (figure below). On the left hand side of the figure, they have far southern Illinois with an increased chance of above normal temperatures for June. For June-August, that area of increased chances expands and covers an area roughly south of I-70. The rest of the state has “EC” or equal chances of above, below, or near-normal temperatures. In other words, they don’t see anything to push temperatures one way or another.
It’s the same story with precipitation – equal chances of above, below, or near-normal precipitation across the state for June and June-August. I think its fair to say that our current skill is pretty low in forecasting summer-time precipitation months in advance.
