NOAA has revised their winter outlook for the U.S, according to a recent post on their ClimateWatch Magazine. An earlier outlook had northern Illinois with chances of well below normal temperatures. The new outlook (below) has pulled the colder outlook out of Illinois as well as expanded the area in the southern half of Illinois with an increased chance of above normal temperatures. So overall, a milder winter is expected in terms of temperatures.
The precipitation outlook for this winter remains unchanged for Illinois. Most of the state, except for far western Illinois, has an increased chance of above normal precipitation. Unfortunately, NOAA does not do a snowfall forecast. Research indicates that the Great Lakes region has better chances for above normal snowfall during past La Niña events. However, the weaker than expected La Niña event this winter and the slow start to the snowfall season suggest that the pattern of increased snowfall during La Niña winters may not pan out this year.
The winter outlook covers the period of December-February, the heart of the winter weather season in most of the U.S.
